TrendForce: LED Market Output Value Expected to Grow to US $13.003 billion in 2024

TrendForce Jibang Consulting's latest "Gold + Member Market Report: Global LED Industry Database and Quarterly Update of LED Manufacturers" data show that the LED market output value dropped to US $12.608 billion in 2023 due to many factors such as weak terminal market demand, slow LED inventory removal and market price competition.

Looking forward to the market demand in 2024, the market demand for automotive lighting and display, lighting (general lighting, architectural lighting, agricultural lighting), LED display, ultraviolet/infrared LED, etc. will have the opportunity to gradually return to temperature. In addition, although the development of Micro LED technology is not as expected, it has also been successfully imported into large-scale display (Samsung) and watch (Tag Heuer) , leading to the commercialization stage of Micro LED. Overall, the LED market is expected to grow to $13.003 billion (+ 3% YoY) in 2024. Among them, Micro/Mini LED self-luminous display, ultraviolet/infrared LED, LED display, vehicle lighting and display, agricultural lighting will have the opportunity to exceed the average growth rate.

TrendForce focus on finishing market potential growth applications:

Micro LED Applications

Wearable devices: The Micro LED version of Apple Watch originally scheduled to come out in 2026, due to the cancellation and termination of the project recently, is definitely a heavy blow that cannot be ignored for the market expectation of Micro LED technology applied to wearable watches. Under this headwind, a few suppliers, such as large panel manufacturers such as Youda, have already shipped small-scale products to Tag Heuer, but they are still unable to reverse the obstacles to the Micro LED wearable device market.

Large-scale display: Micro LED large-scale display process and process yield is difficult to meet the development expectations, the specific performance in the high cost and the actual shipments are still maintained at 100 units. Chip miniaturization is a major indicator of Micro LED cost reduction. However, from the current market point of view, considering many key factors affecting the production process such as chip efficiency and transfer yield, the progress of chip size reduction on large-scale display is not very clear, which will also slow down the cost reduction speed simultaneously.

Vehicle display: Considering the driving demand, Micro LED technology with high brightness, high contrast, wide color gamut, fast response speed and other characteristics is used to integrate intelligent cockpit integrated vehicle display solutions such as special shape, curved surface, flexible type and tactile feedback to comprehensively upgrade the driving experience. According to the TrendForce survey, the knob (Knob) using Micro LED technology, applied to the reading lamp/knob button, will have the opportunity to import in the European car factory. European and American Japanese car factories plan to import Micro LED transparent display. According to the TrendForce investigation, the car factory must meet the requirements of penetration rate ≥ 70% and curved surface design for Micro LED head-up display. As technology and product prices mature, Micro LED transparent displays are expected to be introduced into the automotive market in 2026-2027 for augmented reality head-up displays (AR-HUD) or window displays.

Mini LED Display

TrendForce to the survey, Mini LED(COB) display market demand is growing rapidly, the main display manufacturers include Samsung, LG Electronics, Liad, Zhou Ming, Abison and so on.

Vehicle Lighting and Display

Looking ahead to the performance of the car market in 2024, under the growth of new energy vehicle shipments, the global passenger car and logistics car market is expected to grow slightly by 2-3% in 2024. With the continuous advancement of advanced technologies such as adaptive headlights (ADB Headlight), Mini LED taillights, through-type taillights (Full-Width Taillight), (intelligent) atmosphere lights, Mini LED backlight display, etc., they also continue to face price competition in the car market, which will affect the price of automotive LED products. The market size of automotive LED is expected to grow to US $3.445 billion in 2024.

UV LED

In response to the requirements of the high-power sterilization and purification market, UV-C LED manufacturers continue to introduce ≥ 80mW single crystal high-power and UV-C COB LED integrated packaging, and it is expected that 2H24-2026 will have the opportunity to be re-introduced into the home appliance and dynamic water sterilization market. In addition, Huawei Inquiry (AITO) adopts UV-C LED air sterilization, with an order period of 2023-2025, and will also have the opportunity to drive other car factories to introduce vehicle air sterilization applications. In the long run, compared with UV lamp (UV Lamp),UV LED has a longer product life and simple optical design. Nichia, Seoul Viosys, Violumas, Otway (UVT) and other manufacturers have launched a complete UV-A / B / C LED product line in order to meet the customer demand of replacing UV lamp (UV Lamp) with a complete wavelength solution.

agricultural lighting

Looking ahead to 2024, the Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Poland) region is benefiting from lower prices in plant lighting products (finished products), and the overall plant plant plant solution has a higher return on investment (Return on Investment; ROI), showing stronger demand. In addition, in the high latitudes of Asia and northern Europe to invest in the construction of plant lighting to grow fruits and vegetables and pasture, to improve the long winter on the adverse impact of food supply. These factors are expected to drive the growth of the LED market for plant lighting in 2024. (Text: TrendForce Jibang Consulting)

Gold + Member Market Report: Global LED Industry Database and Quarterly Update of LED Manufacturers